Federal officials predict monthly enrollment in the Affordable Care Act marketplace will increase in 2017, even with rising premiums and major insurers exiting the marketplace, reports The New York Times.
President Barack Obama's administration predicts monthly enrollment will average 11.4 million next year, an increase of 9 percent from the monthly average this year. The prediction was announced Wednesday during a news conference.
At the news conference, HHS Secretary Sylvia Mathews Burwell also predicted 13.8 million people will select marketplace plans in the fourth annual open enrollment period, which kicks off Nov. 1 and runs through Jan. 31, according to the report. That's a 9 percent increase compared to the number who signed up in the last open enrollment season.
Of the 13.8 million projected sign-ups, 3.5 million are uninsured, 9.2 million are already covered through the insurance exchange and 1.1 million have unsubsidized coverage that they bought outside the exchange, according to the report.
The New York Times notes if enrollment increases as federal officials predict, it would suggest the marketplace is steadier than its critics have claimed. Federal officials said subsidies will help make up for rate increases, and that the prospect of stiffer penalties will result in more sign-ups, according to the report. Federal officials are also targeting young adults to enroll in ACA exchanges.
But, the report notes, some of the Obama administration's previous forecasts have not panned out as expected. For instance, insurers said they have not seen a big increase in "healthier consumers," as federal officials predicted last year, according to the report.
Additionally, according to the report, Ms. Burwell did not indicate this week the number of people predicted to still have coverage at the end of 2017, despite that she has treated that number as a significant measure of success in the past. Bloomberg predicts at least 1.4 million people across 32 states will lose their current ACA plans next year due to insurer exits. Many people who sign up never activate their insurance or drop it during the year because they fail to pay premiums or terminate the coverage, The New York Times notes.
"We are not moving the goal posts," said Kathryn Martin, an acting HHS assistant secretary who helped develop the ACA enrollment estimates, according to the report. "We are just using what we believe is a more meaningful metric."