Medicaid disenrollments will drive a total decrease in spending in 2024, even as spending per beneficiary is set to increase, according to new CMS data.
In an analysis published June 14 in Health Affairs, CMS' Office of the Actuary projected overall health spending will grow an average of 5.4 percent per year from 2022 to 2031.
Here are five things to know about the future outlook for Medicaid spending:
- CMS projects the overall uninsured rate will remain stable in 2023, with losses in Medicaid coverage from the redetermination process offset by gains in direct-purchase insurance from the ACA exchange and other sources. As of June 12, more than 1 million people have been disenrolled from Medicaid as continuous coverage requirements in place during the COVID-19 pandemic end.
- Medicaid enrollment is expected to decline by 8.9 percent, around 8 million people, in 2024.
- The decline will drive a 2.1 percent decrease in Medicaid spending in 2024. Per beneficiary spending will increase by 7.4 percent, according to CMS, as healthier beneficiaries are more likely to be disenrolled during redeterminations.
- CMS projects the insured rate to decrease by 0.8 of a percentage point from 2023 to 2024. Analysts projected many people disenrolled from Medicaid will obtain employer-sponsored or other sources of coverage.
- Between 2025 and 2031, Medicaid expenses are projected to grow 5.6 percent per year, on average. CMS projects enrollment in the program will increase by 0.6 percent annually.