The U.S. uninsured rate is projected to increase to 8.9% by 2034, according to new estimates published by the Congressional Budget Office in June.
According to the CBO, the nation's uninsured rate in 2023 hit a record-low of 7.2%. A preliminary survey published in June by the National Center for Health Statistics found the 2023 uninsured rate was 7.6%, or 25 million people.
The CBO attributes the expected uninsured increase over the next decade to Medicaid redeterminations and the expiration of ACA premium subsidies after 2025. The recent increase in immigration will also contribute.
The largest increase in the uninsured population between 2024 and 2034 will be among adults ages 19 to 44.
In 2034, commercial coverage will continue to be the largest source of health insurance, with enrollment between 164 million and 170 million. Enrollment in Medicaid and CHIP is expected to decrease from 92 million in 2023 to 79 million in 2034. Medicare enrollment is expected to rise from 60 million in 2023 to 74 million in 2034. More than half of all Medicare beneficiaries are enrolled in Medicare Advantage in 2023, which is projected to rise to nearly two-thirds by 2034. ACA enrollment is projected to reach a record high of 23 million in 2025, and then decline by about 7 to 8 million after 2025.