Projected 65 million Americans covered under value-based health plans by 2025

Value-based care and risk models are expected to grow significantly by 2025, according to a March 24 report from management consulting firm McKinsey & Company.

Six takeaways:

  • Between 2021 and 2025, value-based contracts are projected to increase from 15 percent to 22 percent of insured lives, covering nearly 65 million Americans.
  • The shift to value-based care plans is evident in various care model segments and payer types.
  • The proportion of the insured population in "at risk" contracts will rise significantly, growing 10 percent annually from 2021 to 2025. The overall insured population will see 1 percent annual growth over the same period.
  • Management services organizations are projected to comprise 9 percent of total insured lives by 2025, up from 5 percent today.
  • Capitated risk staff/employed models are expected to follow the same trend as management services organizations, though they comprise the smallest segment of at-risk models.
  • Accountable care organizations are expected to grow at a steady pace through 2025.

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