The April 7 report from the Washington, D.C.-based think tank was produced with the institute’s health insurance policy simulation model using state-level marketplace data from the 2022 open-enrollment period.
Impact if the premium tax credits expire, according to the Urban Institute:
- 3.1 million people will lose health coverage.
- People eligible for the tax credits with incomes between 150 and 400 percent of the federal poverty level would pay more than $1,000 more per person for a silver plan. People with incomes above 400 percent of the federal poverty line who would lose their tax credit eligibility would pay about $2,000 more annually.
- Non-Hispanic Black individuals, young adults and people with incomes between 138 and 400 percent of the federal poverty level will experience the largest coverage losses.
- Enhancing premium tax credits will increase the federal deficit by $305 billion over 10 years.
The report recommends that Congress extend the premium tax credits by midsummer to give marketplaces, payers and outreach programs time to prepare the 2023 open-enrollment period this November. The tax credits are set to expire at the end of 2022.
