Medicare solvency would be extended 17 years under Medicare Advantage utilization rates: Study

The Hospital Insurance Trust Fund would be solvent until 2048 if traditional Medicare utilization levels were similar to those under Medicare Advantage, according to research published in October by AHIP and conducted by Avalere. 

The Medicare Board of Trustees report has previously projected that the fund will be insolvent by 2031. 

Avalere analyzed inpatient, skilled nursing facility, and home health claims data from 2018 and 2019 under a scenario where traditional Medicare patient days per user were at the same level as Medicare Advantage plans. The study included the change in total Part A spending, the change in the balance of the trust fund, the change in the year in which the fund would become insolvent, and it adjusted for disease and demographic characteristics that may differ between FFS and MA beneficiaries. 

For all Part A services, MA utilization by patient days was lower than FFS, including 36% lower for inpatient, 14% for skilled nursing and 28% for home health.

The full study is available here.

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