Medicare Advantage enrollment has grown rapidly in recent years, now enrolling over half of Medicare eligibles. But payers shouldn't expect the growth to last forever, analysts for McKinsey and Company say.
In a report published July 11, analysts predict Medicare Advantage growth to slow, from 8 percent growth in 2022 to just 3 percent growth in 2031.
Around 50 percent of Medicare eligibles in urban areas are enrolled in MA. This rate will slow over the next few years, reaching 56 percent by 2031, analysts predicted.
Around 41 percent of rural Medicare eligibles are enrolled in MA. McKinsey analysts predict this number will reach 50 percent in 2031.
"As growth slows in historically strong and currently penetrated (primarily urban) markets, payers will seek to build the networks and capabilities to grow in historically less penetrated markets, such as those with large rural populations," McKinsey analysts wrote.
Read the full report here.