UnitedHealth Group still expects a Medicare Advantage enrollment loss for 2026, but the company lowered its projection on a July 16 earnings call.
During the company’s fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 earnings call in January, UnitedHealthcare CEO Tim Noel said he expected a loss between 1.3 million and 1.4 million MA members in 2026. In April, the company reiterated its anticipated 1.3 million MA member drop. Now, that projection is down to 1.1 million.
On the July call, Mr. Noel said, “Medicare delivered a stronger second quarter.”
“Membership retention was better than previously anticipated,” he said during UnitedHealth’s most recent earnings call. Mr. Noel added that the insurer expects Medicare margins to surpass 3% by the end of 2026.
The latest projection more closely mirrors an October 2025 estimate of a 1 million MA enrollment loss in 2026. At the beginning of 2026, UnitedHealthcare anticipated losing up to 2.8 million members across its businesses.
MA membership was roughly 7.6 million people as of June 30, down from 8.4 million at the same time last year. Along with its tightened enrollment projection, UnitedHealth brought in nearly $5.5 billion in profit for the second quarter of 2026. UnitedHealthcare revenue held steady at $86 billion.
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