Medi-Cal enrollment drops by 730,000

Medi-Cal enrollment decreased by 730,000 members from June 2025 to March 2026.

The data came from the California Department of Health Care Services. A July analysis from California Health Care Foundation Senior Program Officer Diana Camacho said overall Medi-Cal enrollment had been shrinking since May 2023 as the state started transitioning from COVID-era policies that prevented disenrollment. Despite enrollment dropoffs slowing after the first year of the unwinding, disenrollment picked up again in the summer of 2025.

Here are six notes from the analysis:

1. The majority of the disenrollments between June 2025 and March 2026 happened in the first quarter of 2026.

2. The 730,000 disenrollments leave just over 14 million people in Medi-Cal, roughly a 5% drop.

3. In 2026, the state froze new enrollment for undocumented adults, and undocumented adults enrolled before 2026 will need to pay monthly premiums beginning in 2027. Over the observed period, enrollment was down 20% and 22% for undocumented children and young adults, respectively. This comes amid policy changes and concerns over sharing data with the Department of Homeland Security and Immigration and Customs Enforcement.

4. Other potential explanations for shifts in the Medicaid population include employment, households with mixed immigration statuses and the end of pandemic-era flexibilities with verification and renewals.

5. CHCF expects intensified drops as Medicaid work rules and more frequent eligibility checks come into play in 2027 as a result of HR 1. 

6. While not addressed in the analysis, California is also lowering its Medi-Cal asset limits for older adults and those with disabilities in July 2027, signaling another possible enrollment squeeze on the horizon.

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