Elevance Health is expecting over 400,000 new members across its lines of business in 2023, even as the company faces the loss of Medicaid members because of eligibility redeterminations beginning in April.
CEO Gail Boudreaux told investors Jan. 25 that total medical membership by the end of 2023 is expected to be in the range of 47.4 million to 48.5 million members, "reflecting growth of over 400,000 members at the midpoint."
"The wider-than-normal range contemplates a variety of scenarios related to coverage shifts out of Medicaid, and into employer-sponsored plans and the relatively uncertain macroeconomic backdrop," she said. "We expect approximately one-third of this growth to occur in the first quarter with the balance more heavily concentrated in the back half of the year as consumers transition from Medicaid to commercial coverage."
As of Dec. 31, total medical membership at Elevance is 47.5 million, an increase of 2.2 million, or 4.8 percent year-over-year. There are 31.4 million commercial and specialty members, 11.6 million Medicaid members, nearly 2 million Medicare Advantage members and 947,000 Medicare supplement plans.
Total commercial membership by the end of 2023 is predicted to range from 32 million to 32.5 million members, which would reflect growth of over 800,000 members at the midpoint.
By the end of the year, Medicare Advantage membership is expected to grow in a range of 75,000 to 125,000 new members, pushing the company over the 2 million member mark.
"We had very solid growth in our D-SNP business, which is where we've had a focus for some period of time," Government Business President Felicia Norwood said. "At the end of the day, a competitive environment, which it always will be in Medicare Advantage, but still an opportunity to grow in a business that we feel very good about."
Medicaid membership by the end of the year is expected to decrease to a range between 10.8 million to 11.3 million.
Medicare supplement and federal employees' health plan membership are expected to remain stable.