A combination of Medicaid redeterminations and a sluggish economy is expected to slow commercial enrollment in the health insurance sector and negatively impact earnings in the second half of 2023, according to a July analysis from Moody's shared with Becker's.
Through the first quarter of this year, EBITDA growth was 12 percent higher year over year for the largest publicly-traded health insurers, but Moody's expects mid-single-digit EBITDA growth this year for several reasons, including redeterminations. Redetermination losses will be partially offset by an increase in individual market enrollment.
At Aetna, Centene, Elevance Health, Humana, Molina, and UnitedHealthcare, combined commercial enrollment is expected to increase by 3 million members through the end of the year, compared to 3.7 million added in the first quarter.