Elevance predicts growth as rivals face Medicare Advantage losses

An Elevance Health executive said the company is comfortable with its Medicare Advantage business as other insurers project losses. 

Speaking at the Goldman Sachs Healthcare Conference on June 12, Stephen Tanal, vice president of investor relations at Elevance, said he is comfortable predicting "market-plus" growth for the company's Medicare Advantage business in 2025. 

Exact growth is difficult to predict without knowing what Elevance's competitors are offering in 2025, Mr. Tanal said, but the company could pick up members who leave other insurers. 

"It's all within a range and we'll have to see exactly what occurs," he said. "If everyone's talking about membership losses, those members are going somewhere." 

The Medicare Advantage market is facing two major headwinds: rising medical costs in the MA population and reduced reimbursements from CMS. CVS Health and Humana have said they will exit some markets — and potentially reduce benefit offerings — to accommodate rising costs. 

CVS Health executives have predicted the company could lose 10% of its MA membership in 2025. 

"We're frankly somewhat encouraged by the commentary by some of our peers, competitors, around market rationalization and taking a hard look at that market," Mr. Tanal said. "I know others are potentially losing money this year." 

Elevance Health's Medicare Advantage business will be profitable in 2024, Mr. Tanal said, though below the company's target margin. 

UnitedHealth Group, the largest Medicare Advantage insurer, has also maintained it is well positioned to weather market headwinds. Executives told investors in May the company was comfortable with its Medicare Advantage positioning for 2025 but were noncommittal on growth. 

"Right now, trying to pin the tail on the donkey of who gets what next year, I'm not sure there's much mileage in that," UnitedHealth Group CEO Andrew Witty said May 14. 

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