More people will be uninsured in 2033 than in 2023 as Medicaid continuous coverage unwinds, and extended marketplace subsidies could be discontinued, according to the Congressional Budget Office.
In an analysis published in Health Affairs May 24, the CBO projected the uninsured rate for people under 65 will be 10.1 percent, up from 8.3 percent in 2023, the lowest uninsured rate in history.
Though uninsured rates will rise, they will stay below the 2019 rate of 12.1 percent, according to CBO's projections.
The office estimated 9.3 million people will transition to other forms of health insurance in 2023 and 2024 as Medicaid continuous coverage requirements in place during the COVID-19 pandemic unwind. Another 6.2 million people will become uninsured during the redetermination process, CBO estimated.
If expanded subsidies to help individuals purchase ACA exchange coverage are not renewed after 2025, an estimated 4.9 million people will enroll in nonsubsidized coverage or become uninsured, CBO estimated.
CBO estimates 9.3 percent of U.S. residents under 65 will be uninsured in 2024. Rates will peak at 10.4 percent in 2027-2029, and decline slightly to 10.1 percent by 2033.
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