18 million could lose Medicaid coverage at end of PHE, new estimates show

Updated estimates from the Urban Institute and Robert Wood Johnson Foundation show that 18 million people could lose Medicaid coverage when the COVID-19 public health emergency ends. 

Six things to know:

1. The estimates in the Dec. 5 report are up 2 million from a March 9 analysis which projected 16 million could lose coverage at the end of the public health emergency. 

2. The new report states that while many who are currently enrolled in Medicaid will transition to other coverage options, 3.8 million will become uninsured. 

3. Nineteen states will see their uninsured rates spike by more than 20 percent 

4. Of the 3.8 million who will become uninsured, about 1.5 million will be eligible for Marketplace premium tax credits, but will not enroll. 

5. An estimated 3.2 million children will transition from Medicaid to separate Children’s Health Insurance Program plans.

6. State policy determination during the transition following the public health emergency declaration will have a "crucial impact on how many people lose coverage, how rapidly they lose it, and how many people enroll in other coverage," Matthew Buettgens, senior fellow at the Urban Institute, said in a news release shared with Becker's

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