Medicare Advantage plan choice will fall in more than half of states in 2027, even as CMS projects lower average premiums and a nearly unchanged number of available plans nationwide.
The decline follows widespread disruption in 2026, when as many as 2.9 million MA enrollees had to find new coverage after their plans were discontinued or the insurer exited the market. Individual insurers have signaled a similar pullback for next year, with Humana saying in July that its 2027 plan exits are expected to affect about 600,000 members.
The weighted average monthly MA premium is projected to fall 16.5%, from $14.37 in 2026 to $12 in 2027, according to CMS. The number of MA plans nationwide will dip slightly from 5,553 to about 5,532, and more than 99% of beneficiaries will have access to at least one plan, with 97% having 10 or more options.
The states losing the most Medicare Advantage plans in 2027:
- Plan options are decreasing in 29 of the 51 jurisdictions where individual MA is available, which includes 49 states, Washington, D.C., and Puerto Rico. Alaska will remain the only state with no individual MA plans for sale. Plan counts are rising in 21 states and are unchanged in Puerto Rico.
- Florida is losing the most plans overall, falling from 611 in 2026 to 560 in 2027. Ohio is dropping from 212 to 180, and Illinois is falling from 157 to 136.
- Wyoming will see the steepest percentage decline, with plans falling from 14 to 8, or about 43%. Montana is dropping 28% (32 to 23), D.C. and Maryland are each declining about 25% (20 to 15 and 63 to 47), and Minnesota is falling 22% (68 to 53).
- Wyoming is also projected to have the largest average premium increase, rising from $45.91 to $69.23 a month. Idaho’s average is projected to climb from $27.81 to $37.93 and Connecticut’s from $16.89 to $25.31. The largest decreases are expected to be in Minnesota ($69.11 to $59.40), D.C. ($26.28 to $16.91) and Mississippi ($11.18 to $4.08).
- Tennessee will see the most plans added, rising from 132 to 155, followed by Missouri (157 to 174), Arizona (133 to 148) and Alabama (98 to 113).
- Plans are projecting 34 million MA enrollees in 2027, or about 47.4% of all Medicare enrollees. That matches plans’ projection for 2026, though actual 2026 enrollment was 36.1 million as of June. CMS said it expects 2027 enrollment to again exceed plan projections.
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