More than 6 million children could lose CHIP coverage when redeterminations begin, new estimates show

Up to 6.7 million children nationwide are at risk of losing their CHIP coverage when Medicaid redeterminations begin this spring, according to a new analysis from the Georgetown University Center for Children and Families.

The Feb. 1 report found that 72 percent of children will likely lose coverage because of state bureaucratic issues, not because of ineligibility. According to the report, the nation's uninsured rate for children (5 percent in 2021) could more than double if states do not redetermine eligibility correctly.

The nation has been under continuous Medicaid enrollment since early 2020, raising total Medicaid/CHIP enrollment to 83.5 million — a 31 percent increase in the program. On April 1, states will begin determining who is and is not eligible for Medicaid once again, with an estimated 15 million to 18 million people in total facing a loss of health coverage. 

States have until May 2024 to complete the redetermination process. The Inflation Reduction Act extended ACA premium tax credits through the end of 2025, which will allow some Medicaid members to regain coverage through the federal or state marketplace.

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