Medicare Advantage enrollment is declining in these 3 states

Editor's note: On March 23, Chartis published a revised version of its Medicare Advantage enrollment report. The new report, based on updated data from CMS, showed that Medicare Advantage enrollment did not decline in any state in 2022. In California, MA enrollment rose by 6 percent in 2022. MA enrollment rose by 11 percent in Illinois, 10 percent in Connecticut and 16 percent in the District of Columbia. 

Medicare Advantage enrollment continues to grow — but in Illinois, California, Connecticut and the District of Columbia, enrollment declined for 2023, according to a report from healthcare consulting group Chartis. 

Nationwide, Medicare Advantage enrollment grew by 1.5 million members for 2023, according to the report published Feb. 22. This represented a slowdown in growth from previous years, when new MA members topped 2 million. 

Traditional Medicare enrollment also continues to shrink nationwide, but the trend was reversed in a handful of states. 

  • In California, traditional Medicare enrollment rose by 5.4 percent for 2023, to 3.6 million people. MA enrollment declined by 1.9 percent to 3.1 million members. 

  • In Connecticut, traditional Medicare enrollment increased by 5.2 percent to 368,000. MA enrollment declined by .9 percent to 353,000 members. 

  • In Illinois, traditional Medicare enrollment increased by 6.4 percent to 1.5 million. MA enrollment declined by 7.3 percent to 780,000 members. 

  • In Washington, D.C., original Medicare enrollment rose by 3.6 percent to 72,000. MA enrollment shrank by 7.5 percent to 23,000 members. 

Chartis analysts said that overall Medicare enrollment is up in all of these states, indicating that the declines in MA enrollment were due to enrollees opting for traditional Medicare rather than shrinking populations. 

"The reversals of fortune in these select states certainly appear to be exceptions in an otherwise robust and thriving market, but they serve as a good reminder that trends can change course quickly," Chartis analysts wrote. 

On Feb. 23, Chartis added the following statement to the report: 

"In the recently released February CMS Medicare Advantage enrollment data, we noticed a material difference from January's enrollment data, which is rare. Many leading organizations — including ours — regularly use CMS’ January data to determine annual enrollment trends. We are in the process of analyzing and updating our analysis now based on the updated data from CMS, as we find it to be more reflective of the true enrollment performance. From what we can tell at this point, the findings aren't a sizable departure from what we've reported, but we will be updating our analysis accordingly." 

Read the full report here.

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