An estimated 3.7 million people would gain health coverage if the 12 states that have not expanded Medicaid eligibility did so in 2023, according to an Aug. 3 report from the Urban Institute and the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation.
Researchers made the projection by using a microsimulation model of the healthcare system designed to estimate the cost and coverage effects of proposed policy options, according to the report.
Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Kansas, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Wisconsin and Wyoming are the states that have not expanded Medicaid.
Four things to know about the report's projections:
1. Those who would see the largest gains are Black individuals as well as young adults and women — particularly those of reproductive age.
2. Medicaid enrollment would increase by 6.4 million people.
3. Federal spending on Medicaid and marketplaces in the 12 non-expansion states would be partially offset by $2.6 billion in savings on uncompensated care. In addition, state spending on Medicaid in those states would be partially offset by $1.7 billion in savings, the report said.
4. Eleven of the 13 states with the highest uninsurance rates have opted not to expand Medicaid.
Read the full report here.